How much credibility should we grant to the panel of solar researchers and scientists that again releases a speculative prediction of the new Solar Cycle (the 24th since accurate solar cycle records have been kept)? Panel chairman Doug Biesecker of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center states, "If our prediction is correct, Solar Cycle 24 will have a peak sunspot number of 90, the lowest of any cycle since 1928 when Solar Cycle 16 peaked at 78."

NASA's lead representative on the panel, Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center, adds, "It turns out that none of our models were totally correct... The sun is behaving in an unexpected and very interesting way."

What I find entertaining is the self-importance prevalent in the solar science community, by both professional and some amateur participants. Pesnell states the obvious, "In our professional careers, we've never seen anything quite like it."

Yeah, how many solar cycles can one experience during their professional life? The average cycle lasts between 11 and 12 years in length. But the sun is millions of years old. In my view, it is pretty arrogant to postulate that mankind has any real understanding and handle on what the sun might do next. Pesnell, again: "Go ahead and mark your calendar for May 2013, but use a pencil."

If none of the models are totally correct, how are they making this current prediction with such dismal expectations? I'm not holding my breath in favor of supporting any of the predictions, at this point.

No one can postulate with any credibility just how intense the new cycle will be, because there's no direct correlation between this solar minimum and any regular pattern of past minimums. In 2008 and 2009, the sun was quieter than any period during the 'Space Age' (again, a very short time of reference in relation to the millions of years of solar history). During the last two years, we've seen low sunspot counts, weak solar wind, low solar irradiance, and a period without a significant solar flare.

What does all of this mean in the real world of amateur communications? With the slow yet sure increase in solar activity during recent months as seen with the emergence of more frequent small sunspots (many of which are new cycle spots) and 'proto-sunspots', there is hope that the sun is waking, at least. Other evidence that the sun is experiencing an increase in solar cycle activity is the 'zonal flows' (enormous currents of plasma on the sun's surface) that are gaining strength and slowly drifting toward the sun's equator. Tiny but significant increases in solar radio emissions are being observed. All these things are precursors of an awakening Solar Cycle 24.

Even this little of an increase in solar activity has brought some welcomed increase in excitement on the amateur radio bands. With continued very low geomagnetic activity, any slight increase in solar activity that strengthens the ionosphere translates to noticeable enhancements to radiowave propagation over many radio paths on the middle to low HF (high-frequency) bands.

The Panel expects another year of very quiet conditions. They expect the cycle to peak in 2013, which means a rapid rise in activity between 2010 and 2013. Whatever the final level of activity, one thing will likely happen: a rapid and chaotic rise in geomagnetic activity, at times at major storm levels, will occur. Enjoy the unique propagation opportunities currently presenting themselves during this quiet phase, because the game will change in the next few years, regardless of whose predictions hold true.

Prepare now for whatever the sun will do, by honing your radio skills, increasing the efficiency of your antenna system, and participate in the on-the-air opportunities to be a part of the solar cycle story. As the story unfolds, be an active player and record as best you can your activity, what the sun is doing. I keep a log of all the solar data, on a daily basis, and I record my contacts made, antenna and power used, modes, and other observations. This information might reveal new and interesting facts as we journey forward in this new solar cycle.

-- Tomas David Hood, NW7US - May 29, 2009

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Geoff  - Go easy on'em.   |216.248.55.xxx |2009-07-01 08:02:21 They make their predictions because they are paid to. For solar cycle predictors it's probably like being a meteorologist before World War II. Heck, even in modern times, predicting the weather here in the Ohio Valley is two parts science and at least one part voodoo. I read with interest what they (and Tomas) have to say, but it's all taken with a grain of salt. Fortunately HF radio still more or less works. And it's just going to get better. Except for the storms. Reply 0 0

Allen  - Mayan Calander   |116.84.25.xxx |2009-06-28 03:17:51 Interesting points raised here.. I see they are "predicting" 2013 for the solar max, but another interesting point is that the Mayan Calendar stops at 2012..co-incidence? Reply 0 0

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